Telecom Tariff Hikes Analyzed

Indian mobile phone companies might raise prices again by December 2025. This is because inflation is low and there aren’t any big elections happening soon. A research company called Motilal Oswal Financial Services thinks prices could go up by about 15% next month.

Key Points

• Low inflation and no major elections support price increases.
• Telecom companies have raised prices three times in the past.
• A 15% tariff hike is predicted by December 2025.
• Data prices are already very low globally, creating an opportunity.
• Government action on AGR dues could delay further price rises.
• Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio have positive ratings.

These companies have already increased prices three times in the last six years. The first big increase happened in December 2019, shortly after a problem with how the government calculated how much the phone companies owed them.

For a while, prices didn’t go up, but then companies raised them again in December 2021 and again in July 2024. A typical plan, costing ₹299 (Reliance Jio) or ₹349 (Bharti Airtel), increased by about ₹50.

Motilal Oswal thinks this latest increase was delayed because of high prices and elections. But now that the previous increase is already included in the standard price, phone companies aren’t growing as quickly.

They predict the next price increase will be about ₹50 per month, which would be a 15% rise. However, this could change depending on how many customers each company has.

Despite people using more and more data, prices in India are still some of the lowest in the world. This means companies could still raise prices.

If the government helps phone companies like Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel pay back money they owed the government, this could stop companies from raising prices. Also, if Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel become more equal, it could encourage more price increases.

If phone companies do raise prices in December 2025, Reliance Jio might be at risk of losing customers. This could push them to raise prices to catch up, and they might even become the biggest phone company in India by early 2026.

“Ultimately, the key to the telecom sector’s future rests in navigating the delicate balance between data demand and pricing strategies.”