Equity Market Performance Analyzed

The October to December 2025 quarter (Q3) has started with a positive trend. The Nifty 50 index and the broader Nifty 500 index have both risen by over 2% in the first six trading days. This suggests early optimism within the Indian stock market.

Key Points

• Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 up 2% in Q3 start.
• 12 Nifty 500 stocks gained over 10% already.
• Suzlon and TRIL top gainers in past 5 Q3s.
• Suzlon: Average gain of 47.6% in past 5 Q3s.
• TRIL: Average gain of 52.2% in past 5 Q3s.
• Technical charts show potential targets for Suzlon and TRIL.

Looking back at the last five December quarters, starting from October-December 2020, two companies – Suzlon and Transformers & Rectifiers (India) (TRIL) – have consistently performed well, appearing in the top gainers list four times out of five Q3 financial periods. This suggests a pattern of strong performance from these two specific stocks.

Specifically, Suzlon Energy saw its biggest gains in the December 2020 quarter, rising by 121%, while TRIL experienced an impressive 122% surge during the same period. However, there were also periods of lower returns. Suzlon’s lowest gain was 32.7% in December 2022, and TRIL recorded a minimum 30.5% rise in Q3FY22.

Importantly, TRIL had a single negative quarter in December 2022, dropping by 6%, while Suzlon experienced a decline of 22% at the end of December 2024. Despite these fluctuations, the overall average gains for both companies over the last five December quarters highlight their relative strength.

Now, the question is: will Suzlon and TRIL be able to repeat this successful performance in Q3FY26? Let’s examine the current technical charts to get an idea.

Suzlon Energy

Current Price: ₹53.30

Likely Target: ₹45

Downside Risk: 15.6%

Support: ₹50.50

Resistance: ₹57; ₹59.15; ₹62

Suzlon Energy’s stock has recently declined by 3% and is down 29% from its peak of ₹74.30 in May. The stock is currently trading below key moving averages, suggesting a cautious outlook.

The stock appears to be nearing the support level of the weekly super trend line, which stands at ₹50.50. A break below this level could push the stock towards ₹45, according to the charts.

The near-term trend is likely to remain weak as long as the stock trades below ₹57. Key long-term hurdles include the 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA) at ₹59.15 and the 100-DMA at ₹62.

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) (TRIL)

Current Price: ₹489

Likely Target: ₹605 / ₹435

Upside Potential: 23.7%

Downside Risk: 11%

Support: ₹494; ₹483; ₹475

Resistance: ₹528; ₹550; ₹570

TRIL stock is trading near its 200-DMA, which is at ₹494. Key support levels are visible at ₹483 and ₹475.

The stock has a cautiously positive bias as long as these support levels are respected. On the upside, the stock may attempt a pullback towards ₹605 levels.

Intermediate resistance for the stock can be anticipated around ₹528, ₹550 and ₹570 levels. On the downside, a breakdown below the support zone could see the stock slide towards ₹435 levels, according to the monthly chart.

The market’s response to these companies will ultimately determine whether their past performance indicates a continuation of their winning strategy.