Retail Inflation Analysis – October 2025

Retail inflation decreased significantly in October 2025, reaching a record low of 0.25 percent. This drop is primarily due to changes in taxes and the fact that prices were already lower last year. Also, food prices fell sharply, helping to keep inflation down.

Key Points

• Overall inflation down to 0.25%, a historic low.
• Lower food costs drive the reduction in inflation.
• Tax changes contributed significantly to the decreased rate.
• Core inflation stable at 4.3%, demand remains consistent.
• Inflation eased to 4.8% year-to-date, showing positive trends.
• MPC projects 2.6% inflation, dependent on weather & supply.

Food Price Trends

Food prices experienced a major drop, falling by 5 percent – the biggest decrease in over a decade. This was mainly because vegetable prices, like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes, went down. Also, the cost of pulses decreased, making food cheaper for everyone.

Monetary Policy Reaction

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noticed that inflation was getting better and changed its predictions. They now expect inflation to be 2.6 percent in 2025-26. They believe this will happen if the weather is normal and there are no problems with supplies.

Agricultural Sowing Update

Farmers have started planting their winter crops (Rabi). A lot of land—22.97 million hectares—has been planted, which is 14.8% more than last year. Wheat and gram crops have also seen increased planting, due to good soil conditions and plentiful water.

Harvesting and Procurement

The harvest season for the previous crops is finishing well. 170.9 lakh metric tons of crops have already been bought, showing a strong agricultural supply chain. These trends show stability in the market.

“Understanding these trends provides critical insights into future economic stability and investment opportunities.”