Indian Stock Markets Analyzed: A Positive Start to Samvat 2082

Key Points

• Indices rose: Sensex up 0.07%, Nifty 50 up 0.1%.
• Strong market breadth: More stocks advanced than declined.
• Positive start to new Hindu year (Samvat 2082).
• Optimism from market leaders regarding future growth.
• Valuations are high, requiring earnings recovery for sustained gains.
• Potential catalysts include trade deals and the upcoming Union Budget.

Indian stock markets began the new Hindu year, Samvat 2082, with modest gains. The Sensex rose by 0.07% and the Nifty 50 increased by 0.1%, marking a positive start to the financial year.

This was the eighth consecutive year that the benchmark indices ended the special Muhurat trading session in the green. Muhurat trading, a one-hour trading session held during the start of the new Hindu calendar year, is a long-standing tradition in India.

Market leaders expressed optimism about the upcoming year. Ashish Kumar Chauhan, MD & CEO of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), noted India’s emergence as a global hub for services exports and the positive impact of GST reforms. Sundararaman Ramamurthy, MD & CEO of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), aimed for a market capitalization of Rs 500 trillion.

Despite the positive start, some factors remain. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies is currently at Rs 471 trillion, just below its peak. Valuations are high, with the Nifty 50 currently valued at 20.7 times one-year forward earnings – a 13 percent premium compared to the 10-year average.

Analysts believe that sustained gains will depend on a recovery in corporate earnings. While potential catalysts like a trade deal with the US and the upcoming Union Budget could trigger further rallies, the market may see consolidation in the coming months.

“Equities underperformed other asset classes during Samvat 2081, weighed down by multiple geopolitical headwinds. However, the outlook for Samvat 2082 appears brighter. India has emerged as a global hub for services exports, while the implementation of GST reforms has been widely welcomed. A favourable monsoon further reinforces confidence in the year ahead,” said Ashish Kumar Chauhan, MD & CEO, National Stock Exchange of India.

“The next Samvat will be positive. Several data points – including robust automobile sales, rising consumption, and improving GDP growth – point to sustained momentum. I am confident this growth will continue. The next milestone to aim for will be India’s market capitalisation crossing the Rs 500-trillion mark,” said Sundararaman Ramamurthy, MD & CEO, BSE.

“Though several factors, including Trump tariffs, played a role, the dominant reason was the sharp drop in earnings growth – to 5 per cent in FY25 from an average of 24 per cent in the preceding three years,” observed V. K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

“Since markets are ultimately driven by earnings, the sustainability of any uptrend in Samvat 2082 will hinge on a recovery in profits,” he added.

“We may see new highs in the coming weeks, but sustaining them will require an earnings revival, possibly visible in the December quarter. Over the next two to three months, markets could consolidate,” said Ambareesh Baliga, independent market analyst.

“The outlook is positive, but it won’t be a one-way rally,” said Ambareesh Baliga, independent market analyst.

Ultimately, the success of Samvat 2082 will depend on whether companies can deliver improved financial results.