Brent Crude Oil Prices Analyzed for 2026

Key Points

• Oil prices predicted to stay low in 2026, averaging $57-$59/barrel.
• Russia-Ukraine peace deal expected, easing oil supply restrictions.
• South American oil production will increase, offsetting US declines.
• Global oil demand is growing slower than before, impacting prices.
• OPEC+ will likely cut oil production to manage supply.
• Overall, an oversupply of oil is driving down prices.

Experts believe Brent crude oil prices will likely be low in 2026. Rabobank International forecasts average prices of around $57 to $59 per barrel. This prediction considers several factors currently affecting the global oil market.

Russia-Ukraine Situation

A key part of Rabobank’s forecast is the expectation of a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by 2026. This deal would remove sanctions on Russian oil, allowing more oil to be sold, primarily to countries like China and India. Currently, Russian oil is rerouted through complex channels, and a peace deal would streamline this process.

Furthermore, a ceasefire would stop attacks on Russian refineries, restoring capacity and allowing more oil to be exported without interruption. This is crucial because it will result in less supply shortages.

Supply from South America

Another source of potential oil supply is South America, particularly from countries like Guyana and Brazil, which are expanding their oil production. Rabobank anticipates this increase will partially offset any decline in US oil production. This expansion in South American supply is set to happen throughout the year.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts a drop in US oil production, estimating averages of 13.61 million barrels per day for 2025 and 13.53 million barrels per day for 2026 – a decrease of 80,000 barrels per day. This decline is primarily due to lower oil prices and increased drilling costs stemming from steel tariffs.

Demand is Slowing

Perhaps the most important factor influencing the oil market is the slowing rate of global oil demand. While diesel, jet fuel, and heavy marine fuel demand are still growing, the pace is slower than in previous years. This is largely because gasoline demand is peaking – particularly in China with the rise of electric vehicles (BEVs) and Europe’s shift to electric vehicles.

This shift is moving people towards electric vehicles, impacting gasoline usage and driving down demand.

OPEC+ Response

To manage the oversupply situation, OPEC+ is likely to respond by cutting oil production. In November 2025, several OPEC members already decided to pause production increases to prevent further price drops. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has a history of working with its allies to influence oil prices through production cuts.

Reducing supply will also allow Saudi Arabia and other key players to focus on maintaining and developing oil fields, ultimately contributing to tighter oil markets and higher prices in the long term.

“Ultimately, the global oil market is shifting towards a more balanced supply and demand situation, but the path to that balance is influenced by geopolitical events, production decisions, and changing consumer preferences.”