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Indian Rupee Analysis: Trends & Risks

On: Thursday, October 9, 2025 6:16 AM
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Indian Rupee Performance Analyzed

The Indian Rupee’s value has been changing a lot recently. On Thursday, it didn’t go up or down much, closing at 88.79 against the US dollar. This happened because the price of oil wasn’t going up, and there wasn’t a big movement in the dollar itself. Experts are watching carefully to see what happens next.

Key Points

  • Rupee closed flat at 88.79, influenced by oil and dollar trends.
  • Rupee has fallen 3.71% this year, raising depreciation concerns.
  • Federal Reserve and US economic data will drive forex market shifts.
  • FPI inflows boosted by IPO subscriptions, impacting rupee demand.
  • US government shutdown and trade tariffs pose key rupee risks.
  • Central bank actions and exporter sales are stabilizing the rupee.

Several important things could change the Rupee’s value in the coming days. The Federal Reserve (the group that controls the money in the United States) is making important decisions. Also, news about the US economy – like how many people are working and how many new jobs are being created – could cause big changes in the exchange rate.

Foreign investors are buying and selling shares in Indian companies, which also affects the Rupee. If a lot of investors want to sell their Indian shares, they’ll need to convert their money back into Rupees, increasing demand. This is currently happening because companies are having initial public offerings (IPOs) – basically, when companies sell shares to the public for the first time.

There are also bigger problems that could affect the Rupee. The US government might shut down if politicians can’t agree on how much money to spend. And the United States and India are arguing about trade – this can make the Rupee less valuable.

To help keep the Rupee stable, the Indian central bank (the Reserve Bank of India) is buying and selling Rupees to try and stop it from going up or down too much. Exporters (companies that sell goods to other countries) are also selling dollars to buy Rupees.

The dollar index, which measures the value of the US dollar compared to other major currencies, was slightly lower on Thursday. This was because of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which reduced fears about conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices also went down because of this news.

“Understanding the interplay of global economic data and central bank actions is crucial for navigating the fluctuations of the Indian Rupee.”

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