Indian Telecom Industry Analyzed

Key Points

• ARPU growth expected: 0.4-1% in Q3FY26 (December 2025).
• Jio & Airtel: Strong subscriber growth anticipated.
• Voda Idea: Continued subscriber losses expected.
• ARPU Growth: Overall industry ARPU up 12% by 2028.
• EBITDA Growth: Telecom EBITDA rising 14-18% over 5 years.
• Key Players: Ratings maintained for Airtel, Jio, and Tata Comm.

The Indian telecom market is getting a clearer picture. Experts predict that companies like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel will continue to attract new customers. However, Vodafone Idea is still struggling to keep its customer base.

Analysts at JM Financial are looking at a small increase in how much money the telecom companies make per customer – this is called ARPU. They expect ARPU to grow by around 0.4 to 1 percent in the next few months. This growth is mainly because customers are upgrading to better phones and plans.

Some companies, like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, are doing really well in adding new customers. This means more people are using their services, which is good for the companies. Vodafone Idea, on the other hand, is still losing customers, and this is a problem they need to fix.

JM Financial has given good ratings to Bharti Airtel, Bharti Hexacom and Tata Communications, meaning they think these companies will do well. They’ve set target prices for these companies – basically, how much they think the stock will be worth in the future. They believe ARPU will increase significantly over the next few years, thanks to more people using data and other services.

Reliance Jio is expected to add about 8.4 million new customers and their average monthly income from customers (ARPU) will go up a little bit, to about ₹212. Bharti Airtel is also adding customers and expects its income to increase by 1.7 percent, reaching ₹259 per customer.

Bharti Hexacom will also see a small boost in its earnings, thanks to more people using mobile internet. However, Vodafone Idea’s situation isn’t improving – they’re still losing customers, even though their average income per customer is going up a bit. This is a worry for the company.

Indus Towers, which manages the towers that the telecom companies use, is also expected to see some growth. This is because Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel are building more towers to serve more customers. But, their overall revenue might not grow much because the average income from each tower is going down a little.

Tata Communications is expected to see some growth too, mainly because they’re selling more digital services. But, they’re facing challenges, like losing customers in some other countries, which could slow down their growth a bit.

Telecom investments are key to a connected future.